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What to watch

OUTLOOK
  • The main focus of the day (indeed, of the week) will be the release of US inflation data at 13:30GMT / 14:30CET. Core CPI inflation is seen slowing slightly to 0.5% M/M in October after surprise persistence at 0.58% in Sept. The analyst survey is skewed slightly lower although the Cleveland Fed Nowcast implies upside risk. The bulk of the expected moderation in October core is seen coming from used cars declining at a faster pace and a health insurance reset. So it’ll likely be changes outside of these components that are of note, especially service components with rents expected to continue to increase extremely strongly. A similar 0.1-0.2pt beat to last month could see a delay in the Fed’s anticipated downshift to 50bp hikes into 2023 or augur a longer string of hikes, either way pushing the terminal rate higher still and driving a sharp flattening in the Treasury curve. For the full MNI CPI Preview click here.
  • There are a large number of speakers due up today. We will hear from the Fed's Waller, Harker, Logan, Daly, Mester and George as well as the ECB's de Cos, Schnabel, Kazimir and Vasle and BOE's Ramsden.
  • In terms of other data this morning we have Italian industrial production and US weekly claims numbers.
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  • The main focus of the day (indeed, of the week) will be the release of US inflation data at 13:30GMT / 14:30CET. Core CPI inflation is seen slowing slightly to 0.5% M/M in October after surprise persistence at 0.58% in Sept. The analyst survey is skewed slightly lower although the Cleveland Fed Nowcast implies upside risk. The bulk of the expected moderation in October core is seen coming from used cars declining at a faster pace and a health insurance reset. So it’ll likely be changes outside of these components that are of note, especially service components with rents expected to continue to increase extremely strongly. A similar 0.1-0.2pt beat to last month could see a delay in the Fed’s anticipated downshift to 50bp hikes into 2023 or augur a longer string of hikes, either way pushing the terminal rate higher still and driving a sharp flattening in the Treasury curve. For the full MNI CPI Preview click here.
  • There are a large number of speakers due up today. We will hear from the Fed's Waller, Harker, Logan, Daly, Mester and George as well as the ECB's de Cos, Schnabel, Kazimir and Vasle and BOE's Ramsden.
  • In terms of other data this morning we have Italian industrial production and US weekly claims numbers.