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OUTLOOK
  • Markets will continue to process Powell's comments yesterday with US near-term pricing and terminal rate pricing not far away from where we were ahead of his interview, but the market is pricing in more rate cuts by the end of the year.
  • There is little top tier data or speeches on monetary policy due in the European morning session so we will continue to see continued focus on Powell's comments yesterday as well as the ECB's announcement that it would adjust the remuneration on government deposits from 1 May to pay €STR minus 20bp. Previously when rates were at similar levels to now, government deposits were not remunerated, but with the ECB's balance sheet at completely different levels now and concerns of collateral shortages fuelling moves at the short-end at the end of last year, the ECB previously temporarily agreed to pay €STR on government deposits until the end of April. We will be watching 2-year and T-bill auctions in particular in the coming weeks to see if this announcement has any market impact in terms of the demand for collateral.
  • Looking to today's events we have appearances from Fed's Williams, Cook, Barr, Bostic, Kashkari and Bostic in the afternoon as well as the ECB's Knot.
  • Markets will also start looking forward to tomorrow's delayed German HICP data release.
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