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What to Watch: Chicago PMI, ECI, House Price Index, Eq Earnings

US TSYS

Tsys little firmer, off highs generated by mixed European data overnight. Inside range as Fed kicks off two-day policy meeting later. Fed funds implied hike for Feb'23 steady at 26.4bp, Mar'23 cumulative 46.9bp to 4.798%, May'23 57.9bp to 4.908%, terminal at 4.92% in Jun'23-Jul'23.

  • Data kicks off at 0830ET w/ Employ Cost Index 4Q (1.2%, 1.1%) followed by
    • FHFA House Price Index MoM (0.0%, -0.5%) and S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA (-0.52%, -0.65%), YoY NSA (8.64%, 6.65%) at 0900ET
    • MNI Chicago PMI 45.1 rev, 45.0) at 0945ET
    • Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (108.3, 108.9), 1000ET
    • Dallas Fed Services Activity at 1030ET
  • No Tsy auctions: resume Wednesday w/ 17W bill sale
  • Equity earnings resume: International Paper (IP, $0.87 adj EPS), Pfizer (PFE, $0.87 EPS), Philips 66 (PSX, $3.97 EPS), Pulte Grp (PHM, $3.85 EPS), McDonalds (MCD, $2.59 EPS), Marathon Petroleum (MPC, $7.09 EPS), Corning (GLW, $0.47 adj EPS), Sysco (SYY), Caterpillar (CAT, $2.79 EPS), Exxon (XOM, $3.40 adj EPS). Still waiting on UPS, GM. After market: EA, AMD, AMGN.

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