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What to Watch: Fed Speak, Tsy Bill/Note Sales

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys resume following Columbus Day holiday, 10Y yield at 4.6945% (-.1064 vs. last Fri's close), curves flatter in the short end (5M10Y -8.733 at -80.124, 2Y10Y -2.209 at -30.669).
  • Tsy futures scaling back a portion of Monday's safe haven support despite ongoing conflict in Israel-Gaza. Dec'23 10Y futures -13.5 at 107-13.5, initial technical support 107-00 (round number) followed by 106-03.5 (Sep 4 low). Cross asset softening as well: West Texas Crude -.47 at 85.91, Gold -4.43 at 1856.98.
  • Second tier data resumes: NFIB Small Business Optimism reported 90.8 earlier (vs. 91.3 prior), Wholesale Inventories/Trade Sales at 1000ET followed by NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations at 1100ET.
  • Flurry of Fed speakers: NY Fed SOMA manager Perli speaks at NABE conference at 0900ET, Atlanta Fed Bostic, Outlook for US Economy livestreamed at 0930ET. Later this afternoon, Fed Gov Waller, Monetary Policy Conference at 1300ET, MN Fed Kashkari Participates in Town Hall at 1500ET and SF Fed Daly Speaks At Chicago Council on Global Affairs at 1800ET.
  • US Treasury supply resumes: $73B 13W, $66B 26W bill auctions at 1130ET; $46B 3Y note, $70B 43D CMB auctions at 1300ET.

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