MNI: GERMANY OCT EXPORTS -2.8% M/M (VS FCST -2.6%)

MNI BRIEF: BOJ Tankan: Business Inflation Expectations Solid

MNI BRIEF: RBA Details Hypothetical Monetary Policy Paths

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY14.2 Bln via OMO Friday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1876 Fri; -1.22% Y/Y

MNI BOJ DEC TANKAN LARGE MFG INDEX +14; SEPT 13; MEDIAN +12

MNI: SPAIN NOV HICP +0% M/M, +2.4% Y/Y

MNI: FRANCE NOV HICP -0.1% M/M, +1.7% Y/Y

MNI: SWEDEN NOV UNEMPLOYMENT 7.4%

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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What to Watch: Fed Speak, Tsy Bill/Note Sales

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys resume following Columbus Day holiday, 10Y yield at 4.6945% (-.1064 vs. last Fri's close), curves flatter in the short end (5M10Y -8.733 at -80.124, 2Y10Y -2.209 at -30.669).
  • Tsy futures scaling back a portion of Monday's safe haven support despite ongoing conflict in Israel-Gaza. Dec'23 10Y futures -13.5 at 107-13.5, initial technical support 107-00 (round number) followed by 106-03.5 (Sep 4 low). Cross asset softening as well: West Texas Crude -.47 at 85.91, Gold -4.43 at 1856.98.
  • Second tier data resumes: NFIB Small Business Optimism reported 90.8 earlier (vs. 91.3 prior), Wholesale Inventories/Trade Sales at 1000ET followed by NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations at 1100ET.
  • Flurry of Fed speakers: NY Fed SOMA manager Perli speaks at NABE conference at 0900ET, Atlanta Fed Bostic, Outlook for US Economy livestreamed at 0930ET. Later this afternoon, Fed Gov Waller, Monetary Policy Conference at 1300ET, MN Fed Kashkari Participates in Town Hall at 1500ET and SF Fed Daly Speaks At Chicago Council on Global Affairs at 1800ET.
  • US Treasury supply resumes: $73B 13W, $66B 26W bill auctions at 1130ET; $46B 3Y note, $70B 43D CMB auctions at 1300ET.
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