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What to Watch: FOMC Focus, Projections


Tsy futures trading mixed, short end firmer as curves steepen (2s10s +3.658 at -68.675). Average volumes (TYH3<275k) as market await final FOMC of 2022 (ECB rate annc Thu) at 1400ET, Fed Chairman Powell press conference at 1430ET.

  • FI markets surged after Tue's lower than expected Nov CPI (0.1% vs. 0.3% est, core 0.2%) spurred hopes of a continued slowdown in Fed hikes in 2023 (Fed voters have until Tue evening to revise projections).
  • This morning, Fed funds implied hike for Dec'22 at 50.1bp, Feb'23 cumulative 82.6bp (91.4bp pre-CPI) to 4.657%, Mar'23 95.6bp (108.4bp pre-CPI) to 4.788%, terminal at 4.815% in May'23.
  • In the meantime, data at 0830ET:
    • Import Price Index MoM (-0.2%, -0.5%); YoY (4.2%, 3.2%)
    • Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM (-0.2%, -0.5%)
    • Export Price Index MoM (-0.3%, -0.5%); YoY (6.9%, 5.7%)
  • US Tsy auction at 1130ET: $33B 17W bills

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