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What to Watch: Incoming Tsy Supply, CPI Tue, FOMC Wed

US TSYS

Tsy futures trading firmer, near recent high on average volumes (TYH3<240k), sedate start to week as market awaits CPI for Nov tomorrow (MoM 0.3% est, 7.3% YoY) and final FOMC of 2022 Wed afternoon.

  • FOMC will step down the pace of rate hikes to 50bp at the December meeting. But it will likely signal via the Dot Plot that it intends to tighten by a further 75bp to a terminal rate above 5% in 2023.
  • Monday data limited to Monthly Budget Statement (-$248.0B est) at 1400ET.
  • Multiple Tsy auctions today, staggered in order to maintains 2 day gap between last auction and settle:
    • US Tsy $40B 3Y Note (91282CGA3) and $45B 26W bills at 1130ET
    • US Tsy $32B 10Y Note R/O (912796X53) and $45B 13W bills 1300ET
  • Geopol: G7: Leaders To Hold Video Call On Russia & Iran Sanctions, Ukraine Aid: The German gov't, in its position as holding the G7 presidency for 2022, has confirmed that a video meeting of the group's leaders will take place later today. Following this, Chancellor Olaf Scholz will hold a press conference at 1130ET.
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