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What to Watch: January Jobs Data, Fed Speak Resumes

US TSYS
Tsys trading steady to mildly weaker for the most part, 30Y Bond firmer (30YY 3.5374% -.0073) ahead the NY open. Inside overnight range w/ two-way flow on decent volumes (TYH3>330k) in lead-up to January employment data.
  • Fed speakers out of blackout - with the only scheduled speaker so far of SF Fed pres Daly later at at 1430ET on Fox Business.
  • Quite likely, however, more speakers will pop up before then - especially if today's employment data upsets markets with larger than expected jobs gain.
  • Bbg survey of 77 economists: range from +130k low to +320k high: CTI Capital Securities leads w/ +320k, Citigroup +305k, GS and Amherst Pierpont w/ +300K.
  • Data kicks off at 0830ET (prior, est):
    • Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (223k, 1885k); Change in Private Payrolls (220k, 190k); Mfg (8k, 10k); Unemployment Rate (3.5%, 3.6%); Average Hourly Earnings MoM (0.3%, 0.3%); YoY (4.6%, 4.3%) and Labor Force Participation Rate (62.3%, 62.3%).
    • S&P Global US Services PMI (46.6, 46.6); Comp (46.6, --) at 0945ET, followed by ISM Services Index (49.2 rev, 50.5) at 1000ET.
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