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What to Watch: Nov CPI, 30Y Bond Reopen

US TSYS

Tsy futures trading firmer, near recent high on average volumes (TYH3<270k) as market awaits latest inflation measure ahead final FOMC of 2022 tomorrow (ECB rate annc Thu). Data at 0830ET:

    • CPI MoM (0.4%, 0.3%); YoY 7.7%. 7.3%)
    • CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (0.3%, 0.3%); YoY (6.3%, 6.1%)
    • CPI Index NSA (298.012, 298.132); Core (299.471, 300.429)
    • Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY (-2.7% rev, --); Wk YoY (-3.5% rev, --)
  • US Tsy auction at 1300ET: $18B 30Y Bond re-open (912810TL2)
  • On FOMC, pace of rate hikes to decline to 50bp (FF pricing in second 50bp hike in Feb). Fed will likely signal via the Dot Plot that it intends to tighten by a further 75bp to a terminal rate above 5% in 2023.
  • Stocks looking strong at the moment, ESH3 +23 at 4048.0, carry-over support in Energy and IT sectors, pipeline servicers lifting the former.

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