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What to Watch: NY Fed Williams; Tsy 3Y Note Sale

  • Quiet Tuesday docket with main focus on Wednesday's CPI. At 1100ET, however, NY Fed President Williams will take part in a moderated discussion with Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody's Analytics. Text is not expected but event is open to the media.
  • Treasury auctions to includes $38B 52W Bill, $50B 42D CMB auctions at 1130ET followed by $40B 3Y Note auctions (91282CHM6) at 1300ET.
  • Today's trade may be a little erratic as participants await tomorrows CPI data at 0830ET. Consensus puts core CPI inflation at 0.3% M/M in June as it slowed from a modest beat of 0.44% in May.
  • There is no evidence that the downside miss in nonfarm payroll gains last Friday has deterred FOMC participants from signalling their preference to raise rates twice more this year. An above-expected print and/or a report with strong details in ex-shelter services would reinforce the "higher for longer" theme; a miss most impactful for September pricing.
  • Wednesday also has a flurry of Fed speakers scheduled ahead of Friday evening's policy blackout: Richmond Fed Barkin, MN Fed Kashkari, Atlanta Fed Bostic and Cleveland Fed Mester

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