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What to Watch: Sep Jobs Data, Fed Speak, UAW Strike Conf

US TSYS
  • US rate futures trading softer, low end of relatively narrow overnight range on moderate volumes (TYZ3<300k) as markets await headline employment data for September at 0830ET.
  • Consensus looks for payrolls growth of 170k, unemployment rate expected to re-correct lower, after August’s 3.80% was largely down to technical factors.
  • Tsy futures are well off midweek cycle lows after Wed's ADP private employ came out lower than expected - spurring rally on hopes of softer policy ahead.
  • As such, SF Fed Pres Daly stated yesterday that "If we continue to see a cooling labor market and inflation heading back to our target, we can hold interest rates steady and let the effects of policy continue to work. Importantly, even if we hold rates where they are today, policy will grow increasingly restrictive as inflation and inflation expectations fall."
  • Fed Gov Waller will likely address data/policy when he attends moderated discussion held by Brookings Institute at noon.
  • Meanwhile, UAW head Shawn Fain is expected to hold a video conference regarding the auto worker strike at 1000ET. Looking ahead to next week: September PPI and FOMC minutes on Wednesday, CPI Thursday.
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