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What to Watch: US PMIs, UK PM Race, Equity Earnings Resume

US TSYS

Continued short end bid, carry-over short from Friday amid speculation of two consecutive 75bp hikes by year end -- w/ push back against 75bp hike in Dec, sees support spreading to long end w/ 30Y bonds firmer.

  • Fed in self imposed blackout through the Nov 2 FOMC, markets will be looking for more opinions from Fed pundits for direction.
  • Session data: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (0.0, -0.1) at 0830ET, followed by S&P Global Mfg PMI (52.0, 51.0), Services PMI (49.3, 49.5) Composite PMI (49.5, 49.3) at 0945ET.
  • US Tsy auctions at 1130ET: $57B 13W, $45B 26W bill auctions
  • UK PM replacement: Former Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak will likely be made the next leader of the Conservative Party at 0900ET, when nominations for the leadership contest close, given that he may be the only candidate to gain the required nominations to get onto the ballot.
  • Q3 equity earnings resume this week, slow start today, however, w/ only a few after the close: Crown Holdings (CCK) $1.768 est; Discover Financial Services (DFS) $3.767 est; Sun Communications (SUI) $2.539 est.

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