While chances of a rate hike at the Jan 31......>

FED: While chances of a rate hike at the Jan 31 FOMC remain close to zero, March

probability has risen sharply this week, particularly after Wed's December FOMC

minutes supported the Fed's hiking campaign. Barclays believes the Fed "will be

hesitant to offset fully the effects of fiscal stimulus" following the late

December tax reform passage. "Yet we believe the committee remains overly

sanguine on the path for unemployment." Barclays "forecast four 25bp rate hikes

in 2018 and three additional 25bp hikes in 2019" bringing the "target range for

the federal funds rate to 3.0-3.25%." Post minute selling in the short end

remains strong since Wednesday, with rate hike probability for the March 20-21

FOMC rising to the mid- to upper 70s. TD Securities believe "market pricing of

nearly 80% for March is a bit strong given the likely slow improvement in wage

and price inflation and the fact that uncertainty about the effects of the tax

policy changes will not be resolved by the March meeting."