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Why Did KC's George Dissent?

FED

One of the more surprising outcomes of the June FOMC was the lone dovish dissent in favor of a 50bp hike (rather than 75bp) by KC Fed Pres Esther George, who is usually considered among the most hawkish members of the FOMC. Traditionally, dissenters publish an explanation for their reasoning on the Friday following the meeting so we could get one today. A couple of possible explanations (apart from the simplest one that she thought a 75bp rise was too aggressive at this point):

  • The prevailing theory among sell-side analysts was that she disagreed with the decision to deviate from pre-Blackout guidance for a 50bp hike at the June meeting, and/or the way the 75bp hike was conveyed via the media to markets during the Blackout period.
  • Another possible explanation is that she saw a 75bp hike as too aggressive in conjunction with the simultaneous start of balance sheet reduction in June. Recall earlier in the year she eyed an earlier QT start before rate normalization in order to ensure the yield curve didn't flatten too much.

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