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Winter Supply Fears Ease but Tight Summer Could Follow

NATURAL GAS

Concern for LNG supplies to Europe beyond the current winter are supporting TTF prices next summer and out to the end of Win23/24.

  • EU's Von der Leyen yesterday reiterated the comments from the IEA that Europe may fall short by around 30bcm of gas for filling storage next summer without Russian supplies and if Chinese demand rebounds.
  • The early heating season warm weather and EU emergency measures have helped ease supply disruption concerns for this winter and brought Sum23 and Win23 contracts down by nearly 30% over the last month.
  • The curve shows minimal seasonality with the curve relatively flat until Mar 2024 highlighting the concern for tight supplies next summer.
    • TTF DEC 22 down -1.4% at 111.6€/MW
    • TTF SUM 23 down -1.7% at 118.2€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 23 down -1% at 118.1€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 up 0.7% at 92.77€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 down -0.1% at 90€/MWh

Source: Bloomberg

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Concern for LNG supplies to Europe beyond the current winter are supporting TTF prices next summer and out to the end of Win23/24.

  • EU's Von der Leyen yesterday reiterated the comments from the IEA that Europe may fall short by around 30bcm of gas for filling storage next summer without Russian supplies and if Chinese demand rebounds.
  • The early heating season warm weather and EU emergency measures have helped ease supply disruption concerns for this winter and brought Sum23 and Win23 contracts down by nearly 30% over the last month.
  • The curve shows minimal seasonality with the curve relatively flat until Mar 2024 highlighting the concern for tight supplies next summer.
    • TTF DEC 22 down -1.4% at 111.6€/MW
    • TTF SUM 23 down -1.7% at 118.2€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 23 down -1% at 118.1€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 up 0.7% at 92.77€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 down -0.1% at 90€/MWh