Won Lags Better CNH, JPY Trends, August Trade Data Out This Morning

1 month USD/KRW gravitated higher post the Asia close on Thursday. Late in NY trade we got back to 1324.50. This keeps us within ranges for the past week, but the won underperformed the better tone to both JPY and CNH for Thursday's session. The 1 month ended NY trade at 1323.50, while onshore spot closed yesterday at 1322.65.

• The early focus today will be on August trade figures. The market expects export growth at -11.8% y/y, (prior was -16.4%), with the first 20-days of August data showing exports down -16.5% y/y. On the import side, the market expects -23.4% y/y (prior -25.4%), while the trade position is expected to slip back into deficit, the consensus is at -$560mn for August (prior +$1652mn).
• The tech equity backdrop was also positive post the Asia close on Thursday, with the SOX and MCCI IT indices posting further gains, which outperformed broader equity market trends. This did little to boost won sentiment though.
• To recap, the Kospi edged down 0.19% yesterday, while offshore investors added $170.8mn to local shares. For August as a whole we saw -$569.5mn in outflows.
• On the geopolitical front, South Korea, Japan and China are in talks to host a trilateral summit this year. South Korea is the current chair of the trilateral summit, which hasn't taken place since 2019.