World Faces Transport Fuel Shortfall This Decade: Rapidan

The world will face a ‘significant’ shortage of products such as diesel, jet fuel, and potentially gasoline within the next four years, as refineries fall behind demand, Rapidan said, cited by Bloomberg.

• Demand for transportation fuels will rise by above expectations, while additional refinery capacity is slowing.
• Meanwhile, healthier profits for petrochemical cracking will lure capacity away from vehicle fuels.
• Three out of four scenarios run by Rapidan predict a deficit in global transportation fuels by or before 2028.
• Slow adoption of electric vehicles could lead to a shortfall of 1.3m b/d by 2028, Rapidan projects. Added refinery closures could widen the deficit further to 1.7m b/d.
• This will require steep price increases to help balance the market.
• Refiners could mitigate the shortfall by shifting product yields towards transport fuels, postpone planned closures, or boost utilisation rates.