MNI BRIEF: BOI Sees "Modest" Q2 EZ Growth Driven By Services

MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, July 12

MNI BRIEF: China June M2 SlowsTo Record Low For Third Month

MNI BRIEF: China Steel Export Growth Slows In June

MNI: PBOC Conducts CNY2 Bln Via OMO Fri; Liquidity Unchanged

CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY2 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS FRI

MNI: BAKER HUGHES US RIG COUNT 584; OIL RIGS 478; GAS RIGS 100

MNI: USDA: 2024/2025 CORN PRODUCTION EST 15.10B BSL

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: Germany, Netherlands, France Due Monday

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Would a delay to active gilt sales make 75bp more likely?

BOE
  • Out of the major central banks, the Bank of England over the past 12 months has probably made the least effort to make the market prepared for its policy decisions - and done little to correct market expectations going into meetings.
  • As a case in point, look back to the end of 2021 when markets were expecting a hike in November due to communication from Governor Bailey (among others) but failed to raise Bank Rate. Contrast this with the Fed's "media signpost" via Nick Timiraos ahead of the June meeting to push market expectations in line with the 75bp that was announced.
  • So if the Bank of England disappoints the market by delaying active gilt sales we don't necessarily think that will make them want to "compensate" the market by doing more on Bank Rate instead. This is particularly the case if the decision is merely delayed until November when there will be better information on the gilt remit and how much headroom there is in the market for the BOE to add to gilt sales.
  • Of course, MPC members may think that a larger hike would be appropriate and if they are not announcing the start of gilt sales tightening elsewhere is needed - but we don't think the market's reaction will be at the forefront of their minds as they make this decision.
HomepageBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.