Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
The Wall St Journal is reporting that Venezuela has moved military hardware including "light tanks, missile-equipped patrol boats and armored carriers" to its border with Guyana as a row over a disputed, oil-rich province escalates. A written agreement between Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and Guyanese President Irfaan Ali signed in Dec 2023 "denounced the use of force and called for a commission to address territorial disputes." However, Venezuela's actions would appear to be looking to place significant pressure on Georgetown and test the resolve of the US, where the Biden administration has voiced its backing for the Guyanese side.
- After meeting with Ali in Georgetown, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs Juan Gonzalez said to reporters that “Supporting Guyana to strengthen its defensive capability as it continues to bring enormous oil windfall on the market is something we have a direct interest in,”
- However, with multiple crises on the foreign policy front (war in Ukraine, Israel-Hamas war, Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping), the Biden administration could find itself stretched thin. This distraction is likely emboldening Venezuela's actions, believing that Washington is preoccupied with other matters. Regional power Brazil has also shown its concern, deploying more armoured vehicles and troops along its borders with both nations.
- US snapback sanctions were alreadyset to expire in Aprildue to Caracas reneging on a political agreement reached with the opposition ahead of this year's election. Any military action by Venezeula would undoubtedly see a major escalation in these sanctions.
Map of Disputed Guyana Essequibo Province
Source: WSJ, GuyNode
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.