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WTI, Brent Extend Declines Following NYT Iran Piece

OIL
  • Crude markets extend their earlier decline in recent trade, with both WTI and Brent off by as much as 3%. Move accelerated on the NY times report that multiple pieces of intelligence show that key Iranian leaders were surprised by the Hamas attack in Israel. The information has fuelled US doubts that Iran played a direct role in planning the assault, with markets clearly perceiving a lower risk of disruption for Iranian supply.
  • NY Times piece here: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/11/us/politics/ira...
  • Prompt and longer term time spreads are following the move lower back to at or below levels from late last week.
  • The WTI-Brent spread has fallen to the lowest this month after reaching a peak of -3.12$/bbl last week.
  • Intelligence that points towards Hamas as the exclusive planner of the attack would significantly lower the risk of the war expanding to include regional powers like Iran or Iranian-backed Hezbollah based in Lebanon.
  • On the prospect of new sanctions against Iran, US State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller told reporters yesterday: “We will continue to take actions to hold Iran accountable. But I wouldn’t want to preview from here what those might look like.”
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