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WTI Clears Key Resistance For YTD Highs

COMMODITIES
  • Crude prices have seen additional gains today and a further clearing of resistance as signs of further supply tightening from Saudi Arabia and stronger oil demand from Chinese support prices.
  • The latest Bloomberg survey and Goldman Sachs note suggested Saudi Arabia will extend its 1mbpd voluntary output cuts into September, whilst a Reuters survey suggested OPEC crude output fell by 840kbpd MoM to 27.34mbpd in July.
  • GS said global oil demand has risen to an all-time high in July of 102.8mb/d and revised 2023 demand by around 550kb/d. It sees solid demand driving a larger-than-expected 1.8mb/d deficit in the second half this year. Goldman’s Currie said in an interview the largest factor behind the latest oil price rally is Chinese demand.
  • WTI (CLU3) is +1.6% at $81.88 having pierced key resistance at $81.44 (Apr 12/13 highs) and then $81.75 (Jun 23 high) to open 2022 lows with $83.59 (Jul 11, 2022 high).
  • Brent is +0.7% at $85.56 off an earlier high of $85.79 which stopped just short of testing resistance at $85.60 (Jan 27 high) after which lies the key $86.18 (Jan 23 high).
  • Gold is +0.4% at $1966.62 and has gained strongly despite coming off earlier highs, considering a net push higher in the USD index and only a small dip in Treasury yields. Resistance remains at the bull trigger of $1987.5 (Jul 20 high).
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