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AMERICAS OIL: WTI crude is extending losses

AMERICAS OIL
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WTI crude is extending losses, under pressure from the prospect of peace talks over the Ukraine war and signs of easing Israel/Hamas tensions. Another US crude inventory build and possibility of less Fed easing following higher-than-expected January inflation added bearish pressure. 

  • Concern that trade protectionism could limit global growth is also weighed against upside risk from rising Middle East tensions and risks of sanctions tightening supplies.
  • President Trump is likely to meet Russian President Putin in person in Saudi Arabia some time. Also, it’s not “realistic” for Ukraine to join NATO. Trump has said negotiations will begin imminently but there is a long way to go before there is a truce.
  • Floating Russian and Iranian barrels have hit multi-month highs on harsher U.S. sanctions as buyers fear pulling in cargoes.
  • The OPEC MOMR keeps global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 unchanged at 1.45mb/d while the EIA STEO increased its expectations of excess supply in 2025 and 2026. The IEA’s monthly oil report is out later today.
  • US crude inventories rose 4.07mbbl, more than expected but less than suggested in API data and remains below the five-year seasonal average.
  • US product cracks diverged, with diesel cracks easing following EIA data showing an unexpected build in distillates and a large drop in implied demand. Gasoline cracks are former after an unexpected decline in stocks.
  • The IEA Oil Market Report cut the estimate for 2025 oil surplus citing sanctions and demand. Global oil demand growth was revised to 870 kb/d from 940 kb/d previously. Global oil demand will average 1.1 mb/d in 2025. Non-OPEC supply growth was lowered while OPEC supply growth fell by 280 kb/d in January. It is too early to assess the potential impact of US tariffs on trade flows.
  • PBF Energy’s 156 kb/d Martinez refinery in California may need 45 days more to assess the damage from a fire on Feb 1, per a Bloomberg source.
    • WTI MAR 25 down 1.2% at 74.31$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack up 0.4$/bbl at 16.43$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack down 0.5$/bbl at 30.99$/bbl
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WTI crude is extending losses, under pressure from the prospect of peace talks over the Ukraine war and signs of easing Israel/Hamas tensions. Another US crude inventory build and possibility of less Fed easing following higher-than-expected January inflation added bearish pressure. 

  • Concern that trade protectionism could limit global growth is also weighed against upside risk from rising Middle East tensions and risks of sanctions tightening supplies.
  • President Trump is likely to meet Russian President Putin in person in Saudi Arabia some time. Also, it’s not “realistic” for Ukraine to join NATO. Trump has said negotiations will begin imminently but there is a long way to go before there is a truce.
  • Floating Russian and Iranian barrels have hit multi-month highs on harsher U.S. sanctions as buyers fear pulling in cargoes.
  • The OPEC MOMR keeps global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 unchanged at 1.45mb/d while the EIA STEO increased its expectations of excess supply in 2025 and 2026. The IEA’s monthly oil report is out later today.
  • US crude inventories rose 4.07mbbl, more than expected but less than suggested in API data and remains below the five-year seasonal average.
  • US product cracks diverged, with diesel cracks easing following EIA data showing an unexpected build in distillates and a large drop in implied demand. Gasoline cracks are former after an unexpected decline in stocks.
  • The IEA Oil Market Report cut the estimate for 2025 oil surplus citing sanctions and demand. Global oil demand growth was revised to 870 kb/d from 940 kb/d previously. Global oil demand will average 1.1 mb/d in 2025. Non-OPEC supply growth was lowered while OPEC supply growth fell by 280 kb/d in January. It is too early to assess the potential impact of US tariffs on trade flows.
  • PBF Energy’s 156 kb/d Martinez refinery in California may need 45 days more to assess the damage from a fire on Feb 1, per a Bloomberg source.
    • WTI MAR 25 down 1.2% at 74.31$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack up 0.4$/bbl at 16.43$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack down 0.5$/bbl at 30.99$/bbl