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AMERICAS OIL: WTI crude is higher today amid uncertainty around trade tensions

AMERICAS OIL
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WTI crude is higher today amid uncertainty around trade tensions and tariffs. Recent downside pressure has been driven by risks to global demand, centred around the US and China, and with rising OPEC+ supplies from April.

  • The EIA revised down its global excess supply expectations for 2025 to 100kb/d and to 500kb/d in 2026 due to the projected impact of tighter sanctions and enforcement on Iran and Venezuela. The global oil demand forecast in 2025 was kept stable at 104.1m b/d. OPEC’s March monthly report is published today with the IEA’s on Thursday.
  • The US administration is aiming to increase US production, but EIA forecast only a small output revision higher to 13.76mb/d in 2026.
  • Ukraine has accepted a 30-day ceasefire proposal from the US but Russia has said that it will only approve it on its own terms and not the US terms. If it refuses, President Trump has threatened more sanctions and also tariffs on the country. The Kremlin said “we are carefully studying statements issued after US-Ukraine talks.”
  • EIA US crude inventories are today expected to show a build of 2.2mbbl and with draw for gasoline and distillates almost unchanged, a Bloomberg survey shows. API data yesterday showed a crude stock build of 4.2mbbl, according to Bloomberg sources. Gasoline stocks fell 4.6mbbl and distillates rose 0.4mbbl.
  • Yemen's Houthis said it will resume attacks on commercial shipping transiting the Red Sea which will likely further deter transit through the region.
  • Canada could restrict its oil supplies to the US in retaliation for tariff measures, Canadian energy minister Jonathan Wilkinson said on Tuesday.
  • Cracks are mixed as gasoline cracks are up after the API reported a stock draw last week and diesel cracks weaken amid a bearish outlook for heating demand and after the API showed a distillate stock build.
    • WTI APR 25 up 1.0% at 66.89/bbl
    • US gasoline crack up 0.1$/bbl at 22.41$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack down 0.1$/bbl at 26.09$/bbl
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WTI crude is higher today amid uncertainty around trade tensions and tariffs. Recent downside pressure has been driven by risks to global demand, centred around the US and China, and with rising OPEC+ supplies from April.

  • The EIA revised down its global excess supply expectations for 2025 to 100kb/d and to 500kb/d in 2026 due to the projected impact of tighter sanctions and enforcement on Iran and Venezuela. The global oil demand forecast in 2025 was kept stable at 104.1m b/d. OPEC’s March monthly report is published today with the IEA’s on Thursday.
  • The US administration is aiming to increase US production, but EIA forecast only a small output revision higher to 13.76mb/d in 2026.
  • Ukraine has accepted a 30-day ceasefire proposal from the US but Russia has said that it will only approve it on its own terms and not the US terms. If it refuses, President Trump has threatened more sanctions and also tariffs on the country. The Kremlin said “we are carefully studying statements issued after US-Ukraine talks.”
  • EIA US crude inventories are today expected to show a build of 2.2mbbl and with draw for gasoline and distillates almost unchanged, a Bloomberg survey shows. API data yesterday showed a crude stock build of 4.2mbbl, according to Bloomberg sources. Gasoline stocks fell 4.6mbbl and distillates rose 0.4mbbl.
  • Yemen's Houthis said it will resume attacks on commercial shipping transiting the Red Sea which will likely further deter transit through the region.
  • Canada could restrict its oil supplies to the US in retaliation for tariff measures, Canadian energy minister Jonathan Wilkinson said on Tuesday.
  • Cracks are mixed as gasoline cracks are up after the API reported a stock draw last week and diesel cracks weaken amid a bearish outlook for heating demand and after the API showed a distillate stock build.
    • WTI APR 25 up 1.0% at 66.89/bbl
    • US gasoline crack up 0.1$/bbl at 22.41$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack down 0.1$/bbl at 26.09$/bbl