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WTI Surges Further As Stocks Near Operational Lows, Gold Slumps With USD Bid

COMMODITIES
  • Crude markets have seen particularly strong gains, extended after a below expected crude draw (-2,169 vs exp -600) and another drop in Cushing stocks. Crude inventories at Cushing fell for the seventh week with a draw of 943k this week taking stocks to the lowest since July 2022, getting close to the operational low of 20mbbls.
  • Premiums for near term WTI will continue their rally unless Cushing stocks see substantial builds, according to Bloomberg.
  • Crude inventories in the European ARA region fell -1.025mbbls in the week ending 22 Sep according to the latest Genscape data.
  • BofA has raised its Brent crude oil forecast for the second half of this year to average $91/bbl, from $81/bbl previously, as the recent run up in refining margins has helped to support prices, together with the extension to OPEC+ supply cuts.
  • WTI is +3.7% at $93.78 off its high of $94.17 that has cleared the bull trigger at $92.43 (Sep 19) before a Fibo projection at $93.31 to next open the round $95.
  • Brent is +2.9% at $96.65 off a high of $97.06 to clear two resistance levels including $96.95 (Nov 14, 2022 high).
  • Gold meanwhile is -1.2% at $1877.13, slumping under pressure from further strong USD increases to new YtD highs on the back of Treasury yields surging to fresh multi-year highs. It has pushed through two support levels including the bear trigger at $1884.9 (Aug 21 low), with a low of $1872.7 stopping short of next support at $1871.6 (Mar 13 low).


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