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Year End Brent at $84/bbl Assuming No Geopolitical Supply Shocks: Goldman

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Brent crude futures are forecast at $84/bbl by the end of the year, according to Goldman Sachs, assuming no further Middle East or Russia supply disruption due to conflicts.

  • Brent is estimated to decline as “a moderation in valuation slightly outweighs 3Q inventory declines,” but long-oil positions are still a useful hedge against any geopolitical supply shocks.
  • A reduction in speculative positioning has followed significant signs of potential de-escalation between Israel and Hamas.
  • The view from high-frequency fundamentals data is mixed with North American and Russian production showing softness and set against a continued build in OECD commercial stocks.
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Brent crude futures are forecast at $84/bbl by the end of the year, according to Goldman Sachs, assuming no further Middle East or Russia supply disruption due to conflicts.

  • Brent is estimated to decline as “a moderation in valuation slightly outweighs 3Q inventory declines,” but long-oil positions are still a useful hedge against any geopolitical supply shocks.
  • A reduction in speculative positioning has followed significant signs of potential de-escalation between Israel and Hamas.
  • The view from high-frequency fundamentals data is mixed with North American and Russian production showing softness and set against a continued build in OECD commercial stocks.