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Yellen 2.0 Shakes Markets Up

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures surged higher across the board in late trade, partially tied to the sell-off in sock indexes lead by banks while a safe haven tone accelerated even as Tsy Secretary Yellen attempted to softens her comments on deposit insurance yesterday, pledging additional actions "if warranted".
  • Front month bonds initially surged to 132-01 high. reversed to 131-14 briefly before see-sawing back to 132-08 high
  • SPX Emini futures had fallen to 3954.5 low are back near 3975 at the moment.
  • Wednesday's testimony from Tsy Sec Yellen weighed on stocks after stating the Tsy is "not considering broad increase in deposit insurance", at odds with Chairman Powell's comment supportive of regional banks.
  • Prepared text earlier than expected: Yellen to say "We have used important tools to act quickly to prevent contagion. And they are tools we could use again," she said in prepared testimony to Congress. "The strong actions we have taken ensure that Americans’ deposits are safe. Certainly, we would be prepared to take additional actions if warranted."
  • Yield curves continue to climb off deeper inverted levels: 2s10s marking -38.116 high as short end rates outperform 2Y futures mark 103-30.25 high, yield 3.7535% low. In line, implied rate cuts by year end accelerate with Dec'23 cumulative -86.6 at 3.946%, Fed Terminal slips to 4.89% in May.
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