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Yen Gains 0.50%, Outperforms In G10, Q4 Tankan On Tap Today

JPY

USD/JPY dipped back to 144.74 post the US CPI print, which was right around lows from the start of the week. We recovered from there but couldn't get back above 146.00 and currently track near 145.50/55. Earlier Tuesday highs were at 146.18. This left yen nearly 0.50% stronger for Tuesday's session and the best performer within the G10 space.

  • USD/JPY is broadly following US-JP yield differential trends. The 10yr government bond yield spread remains comfortably above pre US Payroll lows from last week (sub +340bps).
  • The CPI data from US Tuesday's session is unlikely to shift the FOMC outcome due later in Wednesday's US session.
  • Prior to this we have the Japan Tankan survey outcome for Q4. The market looks for close to steady sentiment in the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors (large manufacturing companies at +10 versus +9 in Q3).
  • Also note Japan PM Kishida will front the local media today (6:15pm local time) in which a funding scandal involving his ruling LDP party is expected to feature (see this BBG link).
  • In the option expiry space, note the following for Wednesday NY cut: Y145.00-15($1.6bln), Y146.00($1.2bln), Y147.00($969mln).
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