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JPY: Yen Lags USD Sell Off Amid Higher Core Yields, PPI Out Today

JPY
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USD/JPY tracks near 147.85/90 in latest dealings, slightly up on end Tuesday levels in NY. The safe haven JPY and CHF, underperformed for Tuesday's session, amid Ukraine/Russia peace hopes, along with a firmer core yield backdrop. 

  • For USD/JPY technicals, the trend needle still points south. The recent move down has resulted in a breach of 146.95, 61.8% of the Sep 16 ‘24 - Jan 10 bull leg (Tuesday lows were 146.54. Sights are on 145.92, the Oct 4 2024 low. Key short-term resistance is 151.30, the Mar 3 high. Clearance of this level is required to signal a base. Before that we have the 20-day EMA near 149.87.
  • Yen underperformed as core yields rose through Tuesday trade. Geopolitical and trade war headlines provided the impetus, while a rebound in bund yields, with German fiscal expansion negotiations underway, also assisted the move. US-JP yield differentials sit up off recent lows, the 10yr spread around +276.5bps.
  • US and EU equities finished lower on Tuesday, but US equity futures are higher in the first part of Wednesday trade.
  • EUR/JPY got close to 161.80 in Tuesday trade, but sits near 161.40/45 in latest dealings.
  • Locally today on the data front, we have the BSI large industry and manufacturing survey. There is no consensus estimate for this report. The PPI for Feb also prints. The market expects a 4.0% y/y outcome, versus 4.2% in Jan.
  • Note the following in the option expiry space for NY cut later: Y146.85-00($516mln), Y148.00($1.3bln). 
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USD/JPY tracks near 147.85/90 in latest dealings, slightly up on end Tuesday levels in NY. The safe haven JPY and CHF, underperformed for Tuesday's session, amid Ukraine/Russia peace hopes, along with a firmer core yield backdrop. 

  • For USD/JPY technicals, the trend needle still points south. The recent move down has resulted in a breach of 146.95, 61.8% of the Sep 16 ‘24 - Jan 10 bull leg (Tuesday lows were 146.54. Sights are on 145.92, the Oct 4 2024 low. Key short-term resistance is 151.30, the Mar 3 high. Clearance of this level is required to signal a base. Before that we have the 20-day EMA near 149.87.
  • Yen underperformed as core yields rose through Tuesday trade. Geopolitical and trade war headlines provided the impetus, while a rebound in bund yields, with German fiscal expansion negotiations underway, also assisted the move. US-JP yield differentials sit up off recent lows, the 10yr spread around +276.5bps.
  • US and EU equities finished lower on Tuesday, but US equity futures are higher in the first part of Wednesday trade.
  • EUR/JPY got close to 161.80 in Tuesday trade, but sits near 161.40/45 in latest dealings.
  • Locally today on the data front, we have the BSI large industry and manufacturing survey. There is no consensus estimate for this report. The PPI for Feb also prints. The market expects a 4.0% y/y outcome, versus 4.2% in Jan.
  • Note the following in the option expiry space for NY cut later: Y146.85-00($516mln), Y148.00($1.3bln).