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Yesterday's Move In SONIA Holds

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HomepageBank Of England (BOE) Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

Little respite for core global bonds after yesterday’s sell off keeps the pressure on SONIA futures with some contracts looking through yesterday’s lows, last flat to -3.0 through the blues.

  • BoE-dated OIS shows ~21bp of cuts through the August gathering, with ~46bp of cuts priced through year end, similar to levels seen late yesterday.
  • Domestic news flow includes continued signs of a loosening labour market, with Reed recruitment data revealing a general drop in vacancies. The report also points to reduced flexibility in locations/scheduling, which could provide some challenges as policymakers try to get more people back into the workforce.
  • Today’s UK calendar is very thin, which will leave focus on broader headline flow and cross-market impulses.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
May-245.199-0.1
Jun-245.109-9.1
Aug-244.987-21.3
Sep-244.913-28.7
Nov-244.806-39.4
Dec-244.736-46.4
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Little respite for core global bonds after yesterday’s sell off keeps the pressure on SONIA futures with some contracts looking through yesterday’s lows, last flat to -3.0 through the blues.

  • BoE-dated OIS shows ~21bp of cuts through the August gathering, with ~46bp of cuts priced through year end, similar to levels seen late yesterday.
  • Domestic news flow includes continued signs of a loosening labour market, with Reed recruitment data revealing a general drop in vacancies. The report also points to reduced flexibility in locations/scheduling, which could provide some challenges as policymakers try to get more people back into the workforce.
  • Today’s UK calendar is very thin, which will leave focus on broader headline flow and cross-market impulses.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
May-245.199-0.1
Jun-245.109-9.1
Aug-244.987-21.3
Sep-244.913-28.7
Nov-244.806-39.4
Dec-244.736-46.4