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UK: Yesterday we heard from the PM who outlined the first steps of lockdown
easing. He "actively encouraged" those who could not work from home to go back
to work (but avoid public transport) and the limit of one outside exercise
session per day will be lifted from Wed. He said that schools may gradually
start to reopen from June 1 and parts of the hospitality industry may be allowed
to open from July. More details expected today in a 50-page guidance document.
- The week ahead will give the first indications of how much the lockdown has
impacted the economy with the first print of Q1 GDP released along with monthly
GDP, industrial production, index of services and trade for the month of March
(all released Wed 13 May). Consensus looks for March GDP to fall around 8% with
most estimates ranging from -11% to -5%.
- Tuesday sees the first medium-dated conventional gilt syndication from the DMO
as it launches a new 10-year Oct-30 gilt (see MNI Gilt Week Ahead email).
- Following last week's BOE meeting, consensus is now looking for at least
another GBP50bln in June, with most of the reviews we have read expecting an
extra GBP100bln to be announced at the meeting.