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Yields A Little Lower, Weaker Equities & Stocks Weigh, Vance’s Policy Preferences Also Eyed

US TSYS

U.S. yields 3-5bp lower, with long end yields through yesterday’s lows, but still above last week’s extremes.

  • Weakness in European equities and lower crude oil prices are no doubt factoring into the rally.
  • Meanwhile, some suggest that Trump’s VP pick (J.D. Vance) being a staunch opposer of aid for Ukraine will be having an impact, given potential feedthrough into U.S. borrowing needs.
  • This is a hard one to net off when it comes to the broader outlook for fiscal policy if Trump does manage to win the election, but is probably meaningful enough to have at least an intraday impact.
  • TYU4 +0-09 at 110-08+, with bulls eying the nearby Jul 8/Mar 25 highs (111-10+/13) as they look to extend the recent move.
  • A cumulative ~20K of buying in TY futures helps the contract to fresh highs in recent trade.
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U.S. yields 3-5bp lower, with long end yields through yesterday’s lows, but still above last week’s extremes.

  • Weakness in European equities and lower crude oil prices are no doubt factoring into the rally.
  • Meanwhile, some suggest that Trump’s VP pick (J.D. Vance) being a staunch opposer of aid for Ukraine will be having an impact, given potential feedthrough into U.S. borrowing needs.
  • This is a hard one to net off when it comes to the broader outlook for fiscal policy if Trump does manage to win the election, but is probably meaningful enough to have at least an intraday impact.
  • TYU4 +0-09 at 110-08+, with bulls eying the nearby Jul 8/Mar 25 highs (111-10+/13) as they look to extend the recent move.
  • A cumulative ~20K of buying in TY futures helps the contract to fresh highs in recent trade.