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US TSYS: Yields Decline Ahead Midweek ADP, China Tariff Talk Ongoing

US TSYS
USBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsNorth America
  • Treasuries see-sawed off early session highs to finish near the top end of the session range Tuesday, concerns moderating over the Trump administration's trade policy, China tariff tit-for-tat notwithstanding.
  • Treasury support surged after JOLTS data, job openings were lower than expected in Dec at 7.6m (cons 8.00m) after an upward revised 8.156m (initial 8.098m) in Nov.
  • Focus turns to Wednesday morning's ADP private employment data ahead of Friday's headline NFP data for January, not to mention US Tsy quarterly refunding announcement, S&P Global US Services PMI and ISM Services data.
  • After the bell, March'25 10Y futures trade 109-05.5 (+7) vs. 109-07.5 high, just off initial technical resistance at 109-10/15.5 (50-day EMA / High Feb 3). 10Y yield -.0404 at 4.5146%. Curves mildly mixed: 2s10s -.525 at 29.877, 5s30s +.327 at 43.155.
  • Currency market volatility was relatively subdued on Tuesday, in contrast with the sharp swings seen throughout Monday’s session. However, the USD index spent the majority of the session on the backfoot, consistently edging lower and extending session declines from the overnight highs to around 1%.
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  • Treasuries see-sawed off early session highs to finish near the top end of the session range Tuesday, concerns moderating over the Trump administration's trade policy, China tariff tit-for-tat notwithstanding.
  • Treasury support surged after JOLTS data, job openings were lower than expected in Dec at 7.6m (cons 8.00m) after an upward revised 8.156m (initial 8.098m) in Nov.
  • Focus turns to Wednesday morning's ADP private employment data ahead of Friday's headline NFP data for January, not to mention US Tsy quarterly refunding announcement, S&P Global US Services PMI and ISM Services data.
  • After the bell, March'25 10Y futures trade 109-05.5 (+7) vs. 109-07.5 high, just off initial technical resistance at 109-10/15.5 (50-day EMA / High Feb 3). 10Y yield -.0404 at 4.5146%. Curves mildly mixed: 2s10s -.525 at 29.877, 5s30s +.327 at 43.155.
  • Currency market volatility was relatively subdued on Tuesday, in contrast with the sharp swings seen throughout Monday’s session. However, the USD index spent the majority of the session on the backfoot, consistently edging lower and extending session declines from the overnight highs to around 1%.