Yields Edge Lower

TY futures have recently lodged fresh session highs at 111-13+. The contract sticks to a contained 0-08+ range early on Monday, with volume running a fairly normal ~197K.

• Friday’s range in the contract remains intact, leaving well-defined technical parameters in place.
• Cash Tsy yields are 2-3bp lower, with a modest flattening bias.
• Dovish ECB speak over the weekend (Villeroy) and increased geopolitical tensions centred on the Middle East have headlined thus far.
• FOMC-dated OIS is fairly stable as participants look ahead to this week’s meeting. ~13bp of cuts are priced through the March ’24 FOMC, while ~138bp of cuts are showing through ’24 on the whole. These levels sit comfortably off the recent least & most dovish extremes.
• Dallas Fed manufacturing activity data headlines a vert limited local docket today.
• Outside of the FOMC, this week will see the quarterly refunding announcement. Our full preview of that release can be found here: https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/files/59685/MNI_US_DeepDive_Issuance_2024_FebruaryRefunding.pdf