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Yields Higher Ahead Of Wages Data

AUSSIE BONDS

Aussie rate futures add to overnight & early morning losses, YM -13.0 and XM -14.0 ahead of the release of Q4 WPI data. Cash ACGBs are also weaker with yields 11-14bp higher led by the 10-year. AU/US 10-year yield differential back to flat from -4bp yesterday. 3/10 cash curve is 3bp steeper.

  • Weakness in the belly of the JGB curve and a less than stellar cover ratio at the latest round of ACGB May-34 supply (although the auction was ultimately digested smoothly) are two likely drivers, with some pre-RBNZ weakness in NZGBs also helping.
  • Swaps rates are 12-14bp higher with the 3s10s curve 2bp steeper.
  • Bills are 4-14bp softer across the strip, led by the reds.
  • Immediate RBA-dated OIS holds steady at yesterday’s close with a 95% chance of a 25bp hike in March, while terminal rate expectations sit at ~4.35%.
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