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Yields Pull Back With Macklem Remarks

CANADA
  • Yields have pulled back since BoC’s Macklem spoke following the Financial System Review, with little impact from the publication of the FSR itself.
  • He noted that Dep Gov Beaudry’s comments last week had indicated that the likelihood of the Bank going to the top of the 2-3% neutral range or possibly somewhat above has increased and didn't sound overly worried on housing risks. However, by not ramping up hawkishness even further led to a correction in yields having surged in recent days.
  • 2Y GoC yields are -3.5bps on the day vs +4bps for Tsys, whilst the Dec’22 BAX implied yield has fallen 5.5bps since Macklem spoke to sit 1bp lower on the day.
  • Putting the recent moves into perspective though, the 2Y yield of 3.07% was last seen in Jul’08 whilst the BAX curve has terminal rates 40bps higher since last week’s BoC decision.

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