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The strong bounce in Tsy ylds from Mon-Tue sharp decline ran out of gas Thursday, finishing day off session lows (10YY 1.2599% vs. 1.2316%L; 30YY 1.8957% vs. 1.8783%L).

  • Tsy futures traded higher after weekly claims (weekly claims 419k vs. 350k est; continuing claims 3.236M vs. 3.1M est; July rev to 368k), after bouncing off session lows a few minutes after ECB steady policy annc -- deposit and key refi rates unch'd but revised forward guidance, perhaps not as dovish as anticipated as Bunds trade lower as well.
  • Covid case count headlines (7-day avg case count +53%; 20% of all US cases coming from FL) pushed Tsys to new session highs, though equities managed to trade higher into the FI close (ESU1 +9.0).
  • Tsys holding off midday highs after 10Y TIPS auction draws -1.016% high yield vs. -0.997% WI. Bid-to-cover steady with prior auction at 2.50. Indirect take-up climbs to 70.14% vs. 68.59% in May (68.68% 5M avg) Primary dealer take-up slips to 14.31% vs. 14.88% 5M avg. Direct take-up 15.55% vs. 14.88% 5M avg.
  • The 2-Yr yield is down 1bps at 0.1978%, 5-Yr is down 2.6bps at 0.7105%, 10-Yr is down 2.5bps at 1.2632%, and 30-Yr is down 3.7bps at 1.9022%.