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Free AccessZAR Eyes SARB Hold for Support, But Retail Sales May Disappoint
- USD/ZAR pauses for breath at 14.8685 as USD/CNY tentatively breaks its multi-session downtrend as headlines regarding China's hopes for improved US relations and threats of action, should its interest be undermined come across the wires.
- Focus today on the SARB, expected to hold in what is pegged to be a true nail-biter with more dovish factors entering the SARB's value function.
- Our base case, however, expects significant hawkish rhetoric from the SARB, fiscal risks from the Feb budget and a forward-looking approach to inflation to win out on the day - resulting in a hold.
- Reinforced carry should continue to augment ZAR optimism in the hunt for yield.
- Weaker retail sales data may dampen hopes for a more robust 4Q20 recovery exp at -2.6% YoY & 1.0% MoM.
- Intraday Sup1: 14.8211, Sup2: 14.7093, Res1: 14.9137, Res2: 15.00
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.