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ZAR: Rand Resumes Gains After Public Holiday

ZAR
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Spot USD/ZAR refreshed cyclical lows (worst levels since Feb 2023) and last deals at 17.2361, a touch below neutral levels, as local markets re-open after a public holiday. Bears look for a dip through 17.1388, the 1.00 projection of the 1 Jun - Jul 27 - Oct 6 2023 price swing. On the flip side, the 50-EMA provides the initial layer of resistance at 17.8704.

  • SAGB yields have faltered across the curve, with an element of catch up to today's price action. South Africa's 10-year breakeven inflation rate sits at 5.20%, operating at/near cycle lows. Reminder that the National Treasury holds a regular weekly bond auction today.
  • Key gauges of commodity strength are stable this morning. The BBG Commodity Index sits 0.2% lower on the day; the precious metals subindex has also edged away from new cycle highs.
  • Eskom asked the energy regulator to approve a whopping 36% increase in electricity tariffs in FY2026, citing the need to bring tariffs to cost-reflective levels. The final decision on the increase will be made early next year.
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Spot USD/ZAR refreshed cyclical lows (worst levels since Feb 2023) and last deals at 17.2361, a touch below neutral levels, as local markets re-open after a public holiday. Bears look for a dip through 17.1388, the 1.00 projection of the 1 Jun - Jul 27 - Oct 6 2023 price swing. On the flip side, the 50-EMA provides the initial layer of resistance at 17.8704.

  • SAGB yields have faltered across the curve, with an element of catch up to today's price action. South Africa's 10-year breakeven inflation rate sits at 5.20%, operating at/near cycle lows. Reminder that the National Treasury holds a regular weekly bond auction today.
  • Key gauges of commodity strength are stable this morning. The BBG Commodity Index sits 0.2% lower on the day; the precious metals subindex has also edged away from new cycle highs.
  • Eskom asked the energy regulator to approve a whopping 36% increase in electricity tariffs in FY2026, citing the need to bring tariffs to cost-reflective levels. The final decision on the increase will be made early next year.