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ZEW Survey Expectations Improve, But From Very Low Base

GERMAN DATA
MNI (London)

GERMANY OCT ZEW CURRENT CONDITIONS -72.2 (FCST -68.5); SEP -60.5

GERMANY OCT ZEW EXPECTATIONS -59.2 (FCST -66.5); SEP -61.9

  • The ZEW survey recorded a modest 2.7-point improvement in the German economic expectations index for October, beating expectations after nearing historic 2008 lows last month.
  • Current conditions plunged 11.7 points to -72.2, the lowest since 2003. Both indicators remain deeply pessimistic and imply a deterioration in assessments.
  • Anticipated energy shortages ahead of winter remain a key downwards driver for German industry outlooks as energy-intensive production sees further cuts. Pessimistic outlooks regarding growth in China add to lower export demand.
  • Despite CPI slowing in major eurozone economies Spain and France, the 2.1pp jump in headline CPI to 10.0% in September confirms that the German economy is yet to see relief as high prices continue to drag down demand.
  • On Oct 28 flash GDP data will signal a contraction of the German economy, expected to kick off a Winter recession after almost stalling in Q2. This adds to a slew of worsened growth outlooks for the ECB, which looks set to tighten policy by a further 75bp next week.
  • No notable market reaction was seen as focus remains on the UK.

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