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Zloty Appreciates Amid Greenback Weakness

PLN
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Modest pressure on the USD provides some relief to EM FX space. The zloty has benefitted from this dynamic, with CE3 currencies outperforming all EMEA peers save for the South African rand. When this is being typed, EUR/PLN trades -163 pips at 4.3187, with key support located at 4.2527 - the low print of Apr 9 in the vicinity of the 4.25 figure. Bulls look for a bounce towards Apr 16 high of 4.3728.

  • NBP's Ludwik Kotecki said that the recent streak of weak economic activity data is tilting Poland's interest-rate debate towards cuts. While stable rates remain his "baseline scenario" for 2024, he pointed to a "minimal increase" in the odds of a cut towards the year-end, since "it's clear that the economy isn't accelerating and is far from overheating." Note that Kotecki is one of the three Senate-appointed MPC members, who used to be significantly more hawkish than the majority camp led by Governor Adam Glapinski.
  • POLGB curve has bull flattened, with yields last seen 0.2bp-4.3bp lower. In the grand scheme of things, a relatively weak auction on Tuesday has had a limited impact on the space, as investors focus on Poland's interest-rate outlook and global geopolitical risks. The WIG20 Index is little changed on the day.
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Modest pressure on the USD provides some relief to EM FX space. The zloty has benefitted from this dynamic, with CE3 currencies outperforming all EMEA peers save for the South African rand. When this is being typed, EUR/PLN trades -163 pips at 4.3187, with key support located at 4.2527 - the low print of Apr 9 in the vicinity of the 4.25 figure. Bulls look for a bounce towards Apr 16 high of 4.3728.

  • NBP's Ludwik Kotecki said that the recent streak of weak economic activity data is tilting Poland's interest-rate debate towards cuts. While stable rates remain his "baseline scenario" for 2024, he pointed to a "minimal increase" in the odds of a cut towards the year-end, since "it's clear that the economy isn't accelerating and is far from overheating." Note that Kotecki is one of the three Senate-appointed MPC members, who used to be significantly more hawkish than the majority camp led by Governor Adam Glapinski.
  • POLGB curve has bull flattened, with yields last seen 0.2bp-4.3bp lower. In the grand scheme of things, a relatively weak auction on Tuesday has had a limited impact on the space, as investors focus on Poland's interest-rate outlook and global geopolitical risks. The WIG20 Index is little changed on the day.