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Zloty Awaits ECB Rate Decision

PLN

EUR/PLN holds a narrow range this morning, with the CE3 FX space under some very light pressure ahead of the ECB monetary policy decision. Market participants take stock of yesterday's verbal interventions by Polish government officials, which allowed the zloty to find poise in the wake of its sharp post-NBP sell-off. The rate last deals at 4.6278, still outside of the authorities' 4.40-4.60 comfort zone.

  • Technically, bulls continue to look for a break above the round figure/61.8% of the Sep 2022 - Jul 2023 downleg at 4.7000/4.7072. On the flip side, initial support is located at 4.5951, the low print of Sep 8.
  • Participants eye the ECB decision today amid its potential to further reduce Poland's rate differential with the Eurozone, following the NBP's 75bp cut last week. EUR/PLN 1-week implied volatility printed its best levels in a year this morning.
  • POLGB yield curve has steepened this morning, with yields last seen -1.1bp to +0.8bp. The WIG20 Index sits marginally higher on the day.
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