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PLN: Zloty Barely Changed Despite Strong Retail Sales Outturn

PLN
PolandCEEMEAEM BulletBulletEmerging Market News

EUR/PLN trades at 4.1611, virtually unchanged on the day, despite a solid beat in Polish retail sales reported earlier today. The 4.15 figure provides a key layer of support, while bulls look for a move through the 50-EMA, which kicks in at 4.2191.

  • POLGB are slightly firmer across the curve, with yields last seen up to 3.0bp lower. The WIG Index is 0.7% weaker on the day, while the benchmark WIG20 Index is 1.2% worse off. By contrast, the WIG-UKRAINE Index, which tracks Ukrainian companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange, has rallied by as much as 12.0% this morning, building on a 15.2% upswing registered on Friday.
  • On his return from the US, President Andrzej Duda said that Donald Trump is not planning to pull US troops out of Poland but "we should rather expect ties to tighten". Duda will participate in a National Security Council meeting later today alongside Prime Minister Donald Tusk and other senior officials.
  • MPC's Iwona Duda reiterated her view that interest rates could only be reduced by a small margin and closer to the end of 2025, if at all this year. She refused to speculate on the specifics, pointing to heightened uncertainty.
  • Poland's retail sales exceeded expectations in January, with local analysts pointing to an encouraging rebound in durable goods sales.
  • The NBP will release money supply data at 13:00GMT/14:00CET.
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EUR/PLN trades at 4.1611, virtually unchanged on the day, despite a solid beat in Polish retail sales reported earlier today. The 4.15 figure provides a key layer of support, while bulls look for a move through the 50-EMA, which kicks in at 4.2191.

  • POLGB are slightly firmer across the curve, with yields last seen up to 3.0bp lower. The WIG Index is 0.7% weaker on the day, while the benchmark WIG20 Index is 1.2% worse off. By contrast, the WIG-UKRAINE Index, which tracks Ukrainian companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange, has rallied by as much as 12.0% this morning, building on a 15.2% upswing registered on Friday.
  • On his return from the US, President Andrzej Duda said that Donald Trump is not planning to pull US troops out of Poland but "we should rather expect ties to tighten". Duda will participate in a National Security Council meeting later today alongside Prime Minister Donald Tusk and other senior officials.
  • MPC's Iwona Duda reiterated her view that interest rates could only be reduced by a small margin and closer to the end of 2025, if at all this year. She refused to speculate on the specifics, pointing to heightened uncertainty.
  • Poland's retail sales exceeded expectations in January, with local analysts pointing to an encouraging rebound in durable goods sales.
  • The NBP will release money supply data at 13:00GMT/14:00CET.