Zloty Loses Shine Before Publication Of Poland's December C/A Balance

EUR/PLN keeps probing a layer of support defined around Feb 1 low of 4.3069. Another failed test of that area this morning was followed by a rebound, with the pair last trading +93 pips at 4.3216 as the zloty has moved towards the bottom of the EMEA scoreboard. A break above Feb 7 high of 4.3564 would encourage bulls to look for a continued rally towards Jan 17 high of 4.4124. On the flip side, a move through 4.3069 would expose Dec 13 cycle low of 4.2935.

• The NBP will report Poland's current account balance for December at 13:00GMT/14:00CET. Consensus looks for the first monthly deficit since April 2023 and there seems to be a wider expectation of notable deterioration, regardless of whether the outturn will be positive. According to mBank, the advance payment of a tranche of EU funds from Poland's National Recovery Plan might generate a surprise, although technically it should be registered on the capital account.
• Deputy Climate and Environment Minister Milosz Motyka said that the government will aim to unveil its decisions on energy prices in 2H2024 by mid-March, despite earlier signalling that it could be done within two-three weeks. These decisions will be an important input into the NBP's rate decisions going forward.