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POLAND: Zloty Stays Near Multi-Year Highs

POLAND
PolandCEEMEAEM BulletBulletEmerging Market News
  • EUR/PLN hovers just above its lowest levels in seven years as optimism surrounding Ukraine peace talks and generally positive domestic data, against the backdrop of restrictive local monetary policy, have lent support to the zloty. The currency's REER has climbed to the highest levels since 2008, when it printed all-time highs. As a caveat, as we flagged earlier, sentiment towards the prospect of ending the war in Ukraine seems to be at odds with consensus among local political analysts, who have been warning against rushing into a ceasefire agreement with Russia, which could only result in a temporary pause in fighting and give Moscow time to regroup and strike again. Separately, earlier this week Citi Handlowy wrote in an analytical note that the benefits for the Polish economy from the participation of local firms in the reconstruction of Ukraine would likely have a limited macro impact, which they estimate to be less than 0.2pp of additional GDP growth per year.
  • Statistics Poland will release final Q4 GDP data at 09:00GMT/10:00CET. Preliminary data showed that the economy may have expanded by 3.2% Y/Y in the three months through end-December, missing the consensus forecast of +3.3%. Today's release will provide more details on the structure of growth, with analysts expecting a rebound in consumption.
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  • EUR/PLN hovers just above its lowest levels in seven years as optimism surrounding Ukraine peace talks and generally positive domestic data, against the backdrop of restrictive local monetary policy, have lent support to the zloty. The currency's REER has climbed to the highest levels since 2008, when it printed all-time highs. As a caveat, as we flagged earlier, sentiment towards the prospect of ending the war in Ukraine seems to be at odds with consensus among local political analysts, who have been warning against rushing into a ceasefire agreement with Russia, which could only result in a temporary pause in fighting and give Moscow time to regroup and strike again. Separately, earlier this week Citi Handlowy wrote in an analytical note that the benefits for the Polish economy from the participation of local firms in the reconstruction of Ukraine would likely have a limited macro impact, which they estimate to be less than 0.2pp of additional GDP growth per year.
  • Statistics Poland will release final Q4 GDP data at 09:00GMT/10:00CET. Preliminary data showed that the economy may have expanded by 3.2% Y/Y in the three months through end-December, missing the consensus forecast of +3.3%. Today's release will provide more details on the structure of growth, with analysts expecting a rebound in consumption.