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Zloty Stays Slightly Firmer With Inflation Data In Focus

PLN

EUR/PLN has trimmed its earlier losses as the focus shifts to Eurozone inflation data and away from optimistic China COVID-19 headlines seen overnight. Monthly declines in Spain's and NRW's CPI readings for November inspired some dovish ECB repricing, with participants paring back expectations of a 75bp rate hike in December.

  • After Germany's most-populous state reported a 0.8% M/M fall in CPI, all eyes are on the national figure, due for release at 1300GMT. Softer than expected inflation data from the Eurozone may shift sentiment on Poland's November CPI, which will be published tomorrow morning. As things stand, consensus looks for an acceleration to +18.0% Y/Y from +17.9% recorded in October.
  • Polish bond yields are sharply lower today amid reports suggesting that the gov't will keep seeking spending cuts, while taking the view that securing access to the blocked EU funds is of critical political and economic importance.
  • WIG20 is little changed as its 200-DMA continues to provide formidable resistance. By comparison, Czechia's PX trades sharply lower and Hungary's BUX rallies to new cyclical highs.
  • Technical contours for EUR/PLN remain broadly unchanged. The rate is probing the water under trendline support drawn off Feb 16 and intersecting at PLN4.6838, with bears looking for a breach of Nov 8 low of PLN4.6690. Topside focus falls on Nov 22 high of PLN4.7177.
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