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Zloty Strength Consistent With NBP Aim (Glapinksi)

POLAND
  • Poland expects 2,500 U.S. troops being relocated to the country in the first step, and talks are still ongoing, Pawel Soloch, the head of the Polish National Security Bureau (BBG).
  • NBP member Zubelewicz mentioned in an interview that the MPC should send a ‘clear signal’ at the next meeting on February 8; higher rates and higher levels of reserve requirements are necessary to bring inflation slowly back to target according to the policymaker.
  • The recent PLN weakness due to Russia-related tensions puts Polish policymakers in a difficult position ahead of the NBP meeting as a depreciating currency keeps supporting inflation expectations.
  • A 50bps hike seems likely given policymakers’ recent speeches, which would levitate the policy rate to 2.75%, its highest level since June 2013.
  • This morning, NBP Governor commented that the central bank welcomes stronger zloty (against Euro).
  • There are no important economic data to watch for the rest of the week.
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