Zloty Ticks Lower Ahead Of NBP Minutes, CPI & GDP Data

EUR/PLN trades +114 pips at 4.4781, holding close to the 4.47 figure for the past two weeks or so. A break above Jul 6 high of 4.5040 is needed to signal potential for further gains. Bears look for a move towards Jul 31 low of 4.3986.

• BGK wrote today that "although EUR/PLN has oscillated around similar levels for some time, we think that it's positive news for the zloty. We also think that in a scenario of PLN appreciation, a trigger for such an impulse could be the announcement of an end to monetary tightening in the eurozone. It seems like it's on the horizon." Meanwhile, Millennium Bank believe that Polish macro data tomorrow will potentially have more impact on POLGBs rather than the zloty.
• NBP's Ludwik Kotecki said that he sees no room for interest-rate cuts after the government adopted an expansionary 2024 budget draft. Meanwhile, his colleague Henryk Wnorowski suggested that inflation could slow under +10% Y/Y in August. Flash August CPI will cross the wires tomorrow, alongside final Q2 GDP.
• The NBP will release the minutes of its most recent monetary policy meeting today at 13:00BST/14:00CEST. Unusually, the minutes will be released before the next meeting. The document will be scrutinised for clues on how close we are to the start of the rate-cut cycle.