MNI GLOBAL MORNING BRIEFING: PMI Friday

The week's data wraps up with UK retail sales and the round of global flash PMIs.

UK Retail Sales (0700 BST)

March retail sales are set to fall. On the month, a -0.3% slowdown is expected (-0.4% excl. fuel), whilst compared to March 2021 a rise of +2.8% y/y is projected. This is a substantial reduction from +7.0% y/y seen in February and excluding fuel is expected to be a mere +0.8% y/y, highlighting that increased fuel costs accounted for most retail growth.

Further slumps in demand are anticipated in upcoming months due to the cost-of-living shock, particularly with inflationary pressures anticipated to intensify.

Flash PMIs

The latest round of flash PMIs highlights slowdowns in services and manufacturing across the board in April, as consumers grapple with the cost-of-living shock and firms see running and input costs accelerate.

Significant declines are seen for German manufacturing (-2.4 points) and UK services (-2.6 points). The German manufacturing sector remains of concern due to its high exposure to soaring energy prices and input shortages worsened by Russian sanctions. UK services remain strong, today’s movement reflecting heightened cost concerns off the back of the 10-month high.

France (0815): Manufacturing down 1 point to 53.7, services down 0.9p to 56.5.
Germany (0830): Manufacturing to fall by 2.4 points to 54.5, services contracting by 0.8 points.
Eurozone (0900): Manufacturing to decline 1.6 points to 54.9, services to tick down 0.6 points to 55.0.
UK (0930): Manufacturing to fall 1.2 points to 54.0, whilst services to slide 2.6 points to 60.
US (1445): Little change, a 0.8-point contraction for manufacturing to 58.0, services to remain stable at 58.0.

The US economy continued to experience little impact from the Ukraine war on sentiment and demand to an extent shielded from some energy price growth as a net energy exporter. March PMIs saw strong private sector activity growth despite inflation running at a 40-year high of 8.5% and today's reading will be closely watched for shifts in growth trajectories.

Canada Retail Sales (1330 BST)

Canadian retail sales are seen falling to -0.4% m/m in February (+3.2% y/y in Jan), we note that this data will have minimal impact due to being quite stale.

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Flag	Country	Event
22/04/2022	0600/0700	***		UK	Retail Sales
22/04/2022	0715/0915	**		FR	IHS Markit Services PMI (p)
22/04/2022	0715/0915	**		FR	IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (p)
22/04/2022	0730/0930	**		DE	IHS Markit Services PMI (p)
22/04/2022	0730/0930	**		DE	IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (p)
22/04/2022	0800/1000	**		EU	EZ Current Acc
22/04/2022	0800/1000	**		EU	IHS Markit Services PMI (p)
22/04/2022	0800/1000	**		EU	IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (p)
22/04/2022	0800/1000	**		EU	IHS Markit Composite PMI (p)
22/04/2022	0830/0930	***		UK	IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (flash)
22/04/2022	0830/0930	***		UK	IHS Markit Services PMI (flash)
22/04/2022	0830/0930	***		UK	IHS Markit Composite PMI (flash)
22/04/2022	-			EU	ECB Lagarde & Panetta in IMF/World Bank Meetings
22/04/2022	1300/1500			EU	ECB Lagarde Speech at Peterson Institute
22/04/2022	1345/0945	***		US	IHS Markit Manufacturing Index (flash)
22/04/2022	1345/0945	***		US	IHS Markit Services Index (flash)
22/04/2022	1430/1530			UK	BOE Bailey Panels IMF Event