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Fed Hikes Dip Marginally As Powell Comments Weighed

STIR FUTURES
  • It could be noise but hikes implied by Fed Funds have dipped of late having initially been largely steady on Powell’s comments.
  • They’re still up strongly on the day though at 52bp for the May meeting, 148bps for July and 240bps to year-end.
  • The Fed had expected inflation would peak around this time and for it to come down this year to an extent. However, they have been disappointed in the past and so now want to see actual progress. There could have been a peak in March, but they don’t know that so won’t count on it. The Fed will also no longer count on help from supply-side healing, hence wanting to move expeditiously to neutral and see if need to above that once there.
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