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Free AccessFutures Softer At Re-open, Above Thursday’s Lows
A downtick for TYM2 at the re-open as Asia-Pac participants react to Thursday’s Tsy weakness. The contract last trades -0-04 at 118-20, 0-06 off of Thursday’s low.
- To recap, Tsys were cheaper on Thursday, with the major cash benchmark yields across the curve rising by 5-11bp come the bell. The curve bear flattened as 5s led the sell off, briefly showing above 3.00%, before falling back and closing below that level as Tsys finished off of intraday cheeps.
- Firmer than expected domestic data had little in the way of direct impact on Tsys, with global central bank speak applying more decisive pressure to core global FI markets.
- Hawkish ECB speak from de Guindos (Vice President and usually dovish) and Wunsch provided a catalyst in early European hours, although President Lagarde was a little more balanced (albeit more than willing to flag upside inflationary risks) in her own communique.
- Fedspeak saw Chair Powell point to an unsustainably hot labour market, while he reiterated that a 50bp rate hike could come at the May FOMC meeting, indicating a preference for a degree of frontloading when it comes to policy normalisation. Meanwhile, St. Louis Fed President Bullard (’22 voter) continued to beat the drum for a 75bp rate hike, playing down the ultimate impact of such a move, while noting that “the bond market is not a safe place to be.” San Francisco Fed President Daly (’24 voter) reaffirmed the need for expeditious tightening towards neutral, noting the likelihood of 50bp rate hikes at a couple of meetings in ’22, with open questions remaining re: how restrictive policy ultimately needs to be, while indicating hope that the U.S. will be able to avoid a recession as the Fed tightens. FOMC dated OIS priced in over 150bp of cumulative tightening across the next 3 meetings at one point on Thursday i.e. 3x 50bp rate hikes were more than fully priced, before paring back from extremes to price a cumulative 146bp over that horizon at typing.
- There isn’t much when it comes to tier 1 market moving data due during Asia-Pac hours, while Friday’s wider docket will be headlined by flash PMI data from across the globe.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.