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GBP Crumbles Through Support as Retail Sales Paint Bleak Picture

FOREX
  • GBP is comfortably the poorest performer so far on Friday, with March retail sales painting a particularly bleak picture for the consumer. Both figures including and excluding auto fuel were well below forecast, compounding the dire consumption outlook outlined by the drop in GfK Consumer Confidence overnight.
  • The release triggered an aggressive sell-off in GBP, with GBP/USD breaching support and the bear trigger at 1.2974, Apr 13 low. The break of this level confirms a resumption of bearish activity and an extension of the primary downtrend. 1.2933, the Nov 5 2020 low, also gave way, opening losses toward 1.2901 and below. Moving average studies also point south, highlighting current market sentiment.
  • The greenback trades more favourably, putting the USD Index through the week's best levels for the strongest dollar since late March 2020.
  • AUD and NZD sit lower alongside GBP, with market sentiment pointing to risk-off. Equities are uniformly lower across Europe, with US futures similarly in the red and indicating a negative open on Wall Street later today.
  • Preliminary April PMI data from the US is the data focus Friday, with Canadian retail sales also on the docket. The speaker slate could be of more interest, with ECB's Lagarde and BoE's Bailey both scheduled to speak.
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